Overall beer purchasing starts to improve in May, but craft contraction continues

We’ve been tracking a dismal year in retail alcohol sales thus far in 2025. But as we enter summer selling season, the outlook for wholesale beer purchasing is improving for all segments — except craft — according to the National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA) Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) for May 2025. The steadiest improvement can be seen in the flavored malt beverages (FMB) / seltzer category.

“The Beer Purchasers’ Index (45) and At-Risk Inventory (47) measures show sequential improvement over the preceding three months,” according the NBWA. BPI is the only forward-looking indicator for distributors to measure expected beer demand. The index surveys beer distributors’ purchases across different segments and compares them to previous years. A reading greater than 50 indicates the segment is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates the segment is contracting.

“The At-Risk Inventory measure dropped below the 50 benchmark for the first time since January. This combination of readings moves the industry from contractionary territory to a more cautionary state.”

BPI segments May 2025

• The index for imports fell 30-points to 42 in May 2025 from 72 in May 2024.
   
• The craft index at 20 for May 2025 continues to signal contraction in this segment and is 12-points lower than the May 2024 reading at 32.
   
• The premium lights index fell to 37 for May 2025, 17-points lower than the May 2024 reading at 54.
   
• The premium regular index fell to 42 for May 2025, 11-points lower than the May 2024 reading at 53.
   
• The below premium segment for May 2025 at 47 is three points lower than the May 2024 reading of 50.
   
• FMB/seltzers registered its eighth highest reading of the past three years and a significant increase from its May 2023 reading of 26, reflecting a positive shift in its long-term index trend. The FMB/seltzer reading for May 2025 at 39 is three points lower than the May 2024 reading at 42.
   
• Finally, the cider segment posted a May 2025 reading at 33 compared to 31 for May 2024.